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Current prediction tools underestimate exacerbation risk of severe COPD patients

Presented By
Mr Spencer Keene, Maastricht University, the Netherlands
Conference
ERS 2020
Trial
ECLIPSE
Both the BLISS and the Bertens’ prognostics scores were not sufficiently accurate to assess risk of exacerbation in the COPD cohort of the ECLIPSE trial [1]. “Accurate prediction is important because weighing the individual risk estimates against the benefit and harm of treatment can help to assist clinical decision-making and guide resource allocation,” explained PhD student Spencer Keene (Maastricht University, the Netherlands). Various prediction tools for COPD exacerbations have been developed, but only the Birmingham Lung Improvement Studies (BLISS) prognostic score (including 6 variables: age, CAT score, respiratory admissions previous 12m, BMI, diabetes, and FEV1% predicted) and the Bertens’ score (including 4 variables: exacerbations in the previous year, pack years of smoking, level of obstruction, and history of vascular disease) have methodological rigour and practicality [2,3]. They have been tested in primary care patients but not ...


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